Tropical Storm Erika Update

August 27, 2015 in Collegewide, Engineering IT Workers

The below is something from UF’s Emergency Operations Team (EOT) that I thought would be good to forward to you all to get you thinking about things and reviewing your internal procedures related to a tropical storm/hurricane event for your unit.  Florida has gone about 10 years without a hurricane making landfall that impacts the state so we don’t have recent practice regarding action to take.

Fortunately, at this time it looks like we may just get some rain Monday night / Tuesday  from a category 1 hurricane sitting off the coast.  Things can always change; especially since the forecast track for north central Florida is 4-5 days out and subject to a lot of error.

I will most likely be getting additional updates each morning.  If this is something you’d like me to continue to forward let me know.  I have no plans on continuing to send the updates unless things change significantly and UF looks to be impacted more by this storm.

From: “Allen, Kenneth”
Date: Thursday, August 27, 2015 at 8:52 AM
To: “Allen, Kenneth”
Subject: EOT/Policy Group – Erika Update #2, Thursday AM (8/27)

Emergency Operations Team, Policy Group and Others – good morning. Much uncertainly remains regarding Tropical Storm Erika, especially as it relates to Florida. The computer models have generally shifted their tracks westward over the last several runs and the National Hurricane Center official forecast is now slightly east of Florida. Below are notes from the morning forecasts and attached are current graphics.

Erika Forecast

  • As of 8am, Tropical Storm Erika was poorly organized and located approximately 85 miles west of Guadeloupe (1,543 miles southeast of the UF Campus) with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph.
  • While Erika has strengthened overnight, conditions remain unfavorable for significant strengthening over the next 48 hours. If the storm survives these next 48 hours, it will encounter more favorable conditions for development.
  • Models remain in disagreement on Erika’s track beyond 2-3 days.
  • The official forecast moves turns the storm west-northwest today and continues this general path taking Erika near the Virgin Islands (later today), Puerto Rico (tonight) and Dominican Republic (Friday).
  • By Monday and Tuesday, the official forecast track has the center of Erika located approximately 85 miles off of the Florida East Coast as a category 1 hurricane.

UF Actions

  • With all of the Florida Peninsula now within the forecast error cone, UF units should monitor Erika for forecast changes and review their tropical weather plans.
  • The forecast track and strength of Erika is still too uncertain in the 3-5 day range to know if or to what extend impacts will be experienced within the state. Certainly an increasing threat for heavy rainfall at a minimum is a possibility.
  • Time frame for any potential impacts, if they were to occur, would begin in South Florida Sunday through Monday, moving northward. The Southeast Florida coast has a 30%-40% chance of experiencing tropical storm force winds on this morning’s forecast.
  • Information for the UF community is being regularly posted at http://www.ufl.edu/advisories/, which is prominently linked from the homepage. (This link is only active when required by a UF emergency.)
  • Current forecast updates are available from WRUF-TV’s live stream at 20 and 50 minutes past each hour: http://ufweather.org/watch (link is now invalid).
  • UF Emergency Management will be participating in briefings with local and state officials throughout the day.

If you have any questions or concerns, please let me know.

Thanks

-Kenneth

Kenneth Allen
University of Florida| Emergency Manager
Division of Public Safety| Department of Emergency Management
352-273-2100|kfallen@ufl.edu
www.emergency.ufl.edu